Ontario · prices updated Oct 25, 2026
Heat Pump Savings Calculator
Heating with natural gas, propane, oil or electricity? Pick your fuel, your electricity price and the temperature outside. See what heating costs per hour and per year with your furnace and with a heat pump, and the temperature where the heat pump becomes the cheaper choice.
At 0°C, one hour of heating costs
Propane furnace$0.59per hour
Heat pump$0.14per hour
You save $0.45 an hour
About $5.44 over a weekday’s 12 off-peak hours, 7 p.m. to 7 a.m., if it stays this temperature.
Over a typical Toronto heating season, Time-of-Use plan
Propane furnace onlyabout 2,700 litres of propane a year$2,510
Heat pump all season, furnace as backup$880
You save about $1,630 a year
At these prices, the heat pump is cheaper than your propane furnace at every temperature from -25°C up.
In a home like this, the heat pump keeps up on its own down to about -10°C. Below that, your furnace tops it up.
Heat pump: Midea EVOX G3, 3 ton, working with your furnace.
Estimates for comparison only. How we calculate this.
How we calculate this
Heat your home needs
Based on Natural Resources Canada EnerGuide energy audits of about 11,400 detached homes in southern Ontario, done in 2024. For your home’s age and size, we use the heat loss of a typical home in that group. A home also gets free heat from sunshine through the windows and from people, lights, cooking and appliances. That’s why a typical home doesn’t need the furnace until it’s below about 11 to 13°C outside.
Heat pump efficiency
Based on the certified test data for the heat pump we install most, the Midea EVOX G3 3 ton (MO1BE-H36B-2A with MAAHE-H36B-CA coil, NEEP cold-climate list). In mild weather it runs at low speed and gives up to 4.9 units of heat for each unit of electricity; at -15°C it gives about 1.8. On the coldest days, if it can’t keep up, your furnace covers the rest. For electric homes without ducts, the calculator uses the test data for two Midea Xtreme Heat ductless units (24,000 and 12,000 BTU, NEEP cold-climate list), which keep heating down to -30°C.
Electricity prices
Ontario Energy Board prices from November 1, 2026, plus Toronto Hydro’s per-kWh delivery charges, less the 15.7% Ontario Electricity Rebate, plus HST. You can type your own price instead.
Fuel prices
Natural gas: Enbridge’s October 1, 2026 rates in southern Ontario, about 31¢ per m³ all-in: gas supply, transportation and delivery charges, plus HST. Only the fixed monthly customer charge is left out. Propane: 93¢ a litre, a southern Ontario supplier’s posted price (EDPRO, October 24, 2026) for homes using 2,500 to 4,499 litres a year, plus HST. Heating oil: Statistics Canada’s Toronto average for September 2026, $2.59 a litre. Prices vary by supplier and season, so type your own from your last bill.
Per hour and per year
The result above is the cost of one hour of heat at the temperature and electricity price you pick. The yearly totals use a typical Toronto heating season (Environment Canada daily temperatures, 2016 to 2025) and every hour of your electricity plan: on Time-of-Use, 64% of winter hours are off-peak, 18% mid-peak and 18% on-peak. Like a dual-fuel thermostat, the heat pump runs above one outdoor switch-over temperature and the furnace below it. We use the switch-over that gives the lowest yearly cost for your fuel and plan.
What’s left out
Fixed monthly charges you pay either way, propane tank rental, maintenance, and the price of the heat pump itself. For installed prices, see heat pump cost, and for what you can get back, heat pump rebates. These are estimates for comparison only; your costs depend on your home, your equipment and your utility.
Heat pump vs propane, oil, electric and gas: yearly costs
A typical 2,000 sq ft home built between 1981 and 2011, through a normal Toronto heating season, on the regular Time-of-Use electricity plan. Try your own home and prices in the calculator above.
| Heating with | Current heating cost, per year | With a heat pump, per year | Savings per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Propaneabout 2,700 L a year | $2,510 | $880 | $1,630 |
| Heating oilabout 2,100 L a year | $5,440 | $920 | $4,520 |
| Electricabout 18,000 kWh a year | $2,540 | $820 | $1,720 |
| Natural gasabout 1,800 m³ a year | $570 | $570 | About the same |
Check these against your own bills. If your home uses more or less fuel than shown, your costs and savings go up or down with it. “With a heat pump” means the heat pump runs above the cheapest switch-over temperature and your current heat below it. Prices are listed under “How we calculate this”, with fixed monthly charges left out.
Heat pump vs propane furnace
At about 93¢ a litre with HST, a typical home burns about 2,700 litres of propane and spends about $2,510 a year on heat. A heat pump makes the same heat for about $880 and is cheaper at every temperature, down to -25°C. In an older home built before 1946, the savings grow to about $2,670 a year. Your propane furnace stays as backup for the coldest days.
Heat pump vs oil furnace
Heating oil is the most expensive way to heat a home in Ontario. A typical home burns about 2,100 litres a year, about $5,440 at $2.59 a litre (Toronto average, September 2026). With a heat pump doing most of the work, that drops to about $920, so you save about $4,520 a year. Oil prices swing a lot: at February 2026’s $1.68 a litre, the saving would be about $2,630.
Heat pump vs electric heat
Electric heat turns one unit of electricity into one unit of heat. A heat pump moves heat from outside instead, giving you up to about 5 units of heat for each unit of electricity in mild weather, and still more than 1 at -30°C. For homes with no ductwork we install ductless mini-splits. In a typical home with baseboard heaters, two ductless units (24,000 and 12,000 BTU) cut the heating bill from about $2,540 to about $820 a year on the Time-of-Use plan.
Heat pump vs natural gas
Gas is cheap in Ontario, so on heating cost alone a heat pump comes out about even with a gas furnace over a year. It’s cheaper only in mild weather at off-peak or overnight prices. Most of our gas customers choose a heat pump because it costs little more than a new air conditioner, it cools in summer, and it gives them a second heat source. Gas-heated homes can also get a rebate of up to $2,000.
How to save with a heat pump and cut your carbon emissions
With propane, oil or electric baseboards, a heat pump is cheaper at almost any temperature, so let it do as much of the heating as it can. With natural gas, the cheapest setup is the heat pump above about 0°C and the furnace below that, and the heat pump saves the most on off-peak or ultra-low overnight electricity.
The switch-over temperature is set on your thermostat. We set it for your fuel and electricity plan at installation, and you can change it any time to suit your comfort or savings.
Every hour the heat pump runs instead of your furnace, you burn less gas, propane or oil. Most of Ontario’s electricity comes from nuclear and hydro power, so the same hours that save you money also cut your home’s carbon emissions.
Heat pumps in Toronto: how they work, ways to install and sizing · Heat pump prices, installation included · Heat pump rebates in Ontario
Heat pump savings questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a propane furnace?
Yes, at every temperature. At about 93¢ a litre, propane heat from a 95% furnace costs about 14¢ a kWh. A cold-climate heat pump on off-peak electricity makes heat for about 2 to 8¢ a kWh, depending on the temperature. A typical 2,000 sq ft home saves about $1,630 a year on the Time-of-Use plan.
Is a heat pump cheaper than an oil furnace?
Yes, by a wide margin. At $2.59 a litre, heat from a typical 80% oil furnace costs about 30¢ a kWh, about four times the cost of heat pump heat even on the coldest days. A typical 2,000 sq ft home saves about $4,520 a year at September 2026 prices.
Is a heat pump cheaper than natural gas in Ontario?
Only part of the time. Gas heat costs about 3¢ a kWh. On off-peak electricity a heat pump beats it when it’s warmer than about 1°C, and on the ultra-low overnight price down to about -10°C. Over a whole year the two come out about even, so most gas customers choose a heat pump for the summer cooling and the second heat source.
At what temperature should the furnace take over?
It depends on your fuel and electricity price. With propane, oil or electric heat, the heat pump is cheaper at any temperature, so the furnace only helps when the heat pump can’t keep up: below about -10°C in a typical 2,000 sq ft home built from 1981 to 2011. With natural gas, the furnace is cheaper below about 1°C on off-peak electricity. You can change the switch-over on your thermostat at any time.
Want the numbers for your home?
Book a free in-home consultation, or get an online quote from photos. We’ll recommend the right heat pump and give you a written installed price.